2004年總統大選國際圓桌論壇 

會前新聞稿

由中國政治學會主辦，美國哥倫比亞大學東亞研究所協辦之「2004年總統大選國際圓桌論壇」，訂於三月廿一日上午九時至十二時，於福華國際文教會館十四樓貴賓廳召開。
由於本屆總統大選空前緊張，再加上公民投票之議題炒熱本次選情，不論選舉結果如何，均勢必對於日後兩岸關係與國內政治經濟情勢產生重大之影響。本次會議之目的就是在檢視本次大選兩組人馬的選舉策略成敗、以及未來兩岸關係與國內政治發展之走向。

受邀參與本次會議的對象主要是各國駐華使館以及辦事處、國際媒體與國內的學者專家。而擔任本次會議之主講人均為專長選舉以及兩岸關係之學者專家，包括民進黨立法委員沈富雄，國民黨立法委員孫國華、政治大學副校長林碧炤，暨南大學教授翁松燃，台大政治系教授朱雲漢、東吳政治系副教授盛治仁、中研院社科所助研究員徐永明、政大國研中心研究員冷則剛、以及美國著名中國問題專家司馬晉(James Seymour)、高隸民(Thomas Gold), 任雪莉(Shelley Rigger)等多位學者。

主辦這次會議的中國政治學會，是目前臺灣研究政治學相關議題最重要的民間團體之一。本次會議全程以英文進行。相關詢問事項請洽本會國際部秘書張文揚，電話0919-294384或是27899626轉分機302。

會後新聞稿

由中國政治學會（CAPS）與哥倫比亞大學共同舉辦「2004桌論壇」，上午於福華文教會館舉行，由理事長朱雲漢和James Seymour（哥大）共同主持，與會來賓除了國外學者外，包括立委沈富雄（民進黨）、孫國華（國民黨）、學者林碧炤（政大）、盛治仁（東吳）、翁松燃（暨大）等人，此次會議主要對國際發聲。

針對槍擊案對這次大選的衝擊，沈富雄表示，此次選舉有四種「子彈」：除了「槍擊案」本身外，台中縣的敗選可視為國民黨地方派系的「銀彈」攻勢失效，而第三種「廢彈」，則是由鄭村祺所領導的百萬廢票聯盟運動；此外，沈富雄表示，此次公投也可說是選舉策略「空包彈」。孫國華指出，事實上，選前國民黨對此次選舉的結果較為樂觀，他表示槍擊案是造成選情丕變的關鍵因素，並呼籲扁政府釐清槍擊案疑點。

有關兩岸未來發展議題，林碧炤表示，選後兩岸關係會有新的挑戰與機會，扁政府將面臨如何重啟與美、中對話機制，此外，雖然兩岸就政治上的歧異，但是經濟上卻更緊密的結合，如何處理此一分歧的局面，將是對政府的一大挑戰。呂曉波則指出，相較之下，他反而比較不擔心台灣社會對選舉結果的反應，較令人憂心的是經過這次大選，中共將不再信任扁政府。

Shelley Rigger則指出，陳水扁善於選舉，但是選後應該要盡快從候選人的身份拉回到總統的身份，此外，她也指出，如果扁政府無法在制憲的議題上說服美國，將會受到美國政府更強烈的質疑。另外，Alan Romberg表示美國的一中政策並沒有改變，美國政府並不支持兩岸任何一方破壞現狀，也希望中國能夠找出解決兩岸問題的對策。
　

Press Release: Roundtable on Taiwan's 2004 Presidential Election 
March 21, 2004

          The morning of March 21, legislators, foreign and domestic scholars and the international press gathered in the Howard International House to discuss election outcomes and how these outcomes would change domestic political development and cross-straight relations. This morning's Roundtable Seminar was sponsored by the Chinese Association of Political Science (CAPS Taipei), and Columbia University's Weatherhead East Asian Institute.
 
          Legislators Fu-Hsiung Shen and Kauo-Hwa Sun provided both articulate and refreshing respective DPP and KMT sides. Fu-Hsiung Shen was very pleased about the election results, and used a 'four bullet' analysis to describe the outcome of the campaign. The 'real bullet': the assassination attempt, 'silver bullet': Pan-Blue's failure to buy the local factions, 'misfire bullet': the suggested casting of invalid votes, and the 'empty bullet': Dr. Shen's belief that 'the referendum issue was a [DPP] strategy to consolidate or bind [Chen Shui Bian's] voters', were used to explain the surge of support for the Green Party in election. Kuomintang Legislative member Sun Kauo-Hwa specifically mentioned KMT issues of the economy, social reform and educational reform were overshadowed by DPP and media pressure about sovereignty and ethnicity. This combined with the referendum, gunshot were reasons for the KMT loss and the foundations for their current lawsuit. In a vivid description of the previous nights political rallies, UC Berkeley Professor Thomas Gold stressed that the use of 'dirty tricks', be it referendum, shooting, or financial scandal, would only serve to challenge the legitimacy of the elected party.

          National Chengchi University Professor Bin-Jaw Lin spoke of both challenges and opportunities facing the Chen government. He described the dilemma of the Chen Administration as being although politically, Taiwan and Mainland China are becoming more divergent, economically, they are growing closer. Professor Byron S.J. Weng of National Chi Nan University argues that during the weeks before the elections, it is his opinion that neither Chen Shui Bian nor Lien Chan supported the one China two systems policy; both supported a separate Taiwan. Thus if China makes this a precondition for negotiation, not only will no headway be made, but a conflict will arise. Professor Shelly Rigger from Davidson College said that the use of 'dirty tricks' are not acceptable. She questioned if the US could support this kind of tricky politics.

          With respect to the reaction of the international community, Alan Romberg said America would do its best not to get involved in the situation, and would do it's best to promote peace and stability in cross straight relations. Thomas Gold and Byron Weng provided contrasting viewpoints on China-Taiwanese relations. Gold felt that because of the current KMT demonstrations in front of the presidential palace, Mainland may be more understanding that the election results and attempt at referendum represent only half of the island. Contrarily, Byron Weng said that the referendum, although it did not pass, is still a divisive issue in which the majority [of voters ]support independence from the mainland.
 
          The Roundtable provides the most complete and timely analysis on the historical election in Taiwan. More than 150 scholars and journalists attended the seminar.